Saturday, June 24, 2006

Novak cites poll

Robert Novak cites the GOP commissioned poll to bolster conservatives worried about the 2006 elections. The party has gotten their money's worth out of their skewed poll.

I know that Novak, Bush, John Sweeney (R-NY) and others in their party have a hard time understanding the relationship between facts and reality, but here are the facts:

In the last 20th District race, the county turn out was as follows:

Columbia had 31,326 voters Dutchess had 47,372 voters Washington had 25,223 voters

Columbia and Dutchess Counties are where the 2004 Democratic Candidate had the most votes. Columbia voted for Kelley at 35%, Dutchess at 37%. Just 26% of Washington County voters choose Doris Kelley.

Number of people polled in each of those places?

Columbia - 18 Dutchess - 45 Washington - 44

Columbia and Dutchess county total 25% of the voters yet only 16% of those polled. The poll questioned just over 400 people. 128 of them were in Saratoga County which was supposed to be a reflection of the fact that 32% of the voters were there. Yet 25% of the poll didn't go to Dutchess and Columbia counties.

That is a skewed poll created by design to favor Sweeney no matter how you slice it. The GOP got what they paid for, a headline. Novak is still worried about being wrong and finishes up with a hedge:

Republicans still worry about reverse coattails in New York. State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, heading the Democratic ticket as the candidate for governor, is running far ahead of former Assemblyman John Faso. Sen. Hillary Clinton also has a huge lead for Senate re-election.

I spoke with a friend who does marketing research recently, he said that a poll that used a maiden name that the person doesn't use and that underplays certain parts of the district could be done for those that wanted to hire one: the GOP was the client, this wasn't an independent poll no matter who they paid to run it for them. Republican Blogger News Copy has unanswered questions on the poll:

The NRCC is pitching Sweeney's 2-1 edge in a recent poll, except the Congressman's campaign hasn't called back News Copy with any numbers crunched on the percentage breakdown of the voters in the district compared to where respondents were called.

It is possible 30 percent of the Congressional District is in Saratoga County, right?

That clarification is the difference between John Sweeney making a slam dunk where the backboard shatters -- and him missing a free throw.

Yes, it is possible. But what has happened is that the most Democratic parts of the district were under-polled and other Republican parts were over polled.

Don't take my word for it, the NYS Board of Elections has the voter turnout for all of the races right here. Sweeney doesn't have a 2-1 edge at any rate since there are as many people who were undecided as those who said they'd vote for Gillibrand. Which the NRCC conveniently ignored.

Here's more to consider: in the last election, Sweeney won by around 67% of the vote - even the skewed poll shows him at just over 50% today. Sweeney has lost support and is in real danger.

For more, see our earlier posts on the poll: Poll Watching and The Truth about the Pipe Dream Push Poll.

3 Comments:

Blogger Morris N. Guller said...

Lisa,

There is something new to worry about, however.

Since that poll Mr. Weld has left the race. Mr. Faso's name will be on the ballot. That is a big problem in the 20th CD.

For many years Mr. Faso was our Representative in the New York Assembly. His district covers most of the southern part of the 20th CD. For some reason, and I can't tell you why, Mr. Faso is very popular here - even among Democrats. If you check his statewide numbers from his race for Comptroller in 2002 you will see that his greatest % margin of vicotry came from the 20th CD.

Troubling for all of us is the fact that Mr. Faso's name is the first name people in these parts will go to when they go to vote in November. Eliot rents a house in Columbia County so he has easier access to Albany but he is not known as a local guy. He's from Manhattan. Mr. Faso is from Kinderhook, also in Columbia County and for some reason, they love him there.

It is unfortunate for the Democrats down the ticket that Mr. Faso is heading the Republican effort. Even though he will not carry the state, he will carry this part of New York. He's even popular up in Warren County, for some reason.

Faso is going to inadvertently be a great help to Mr. Sweeney, even though I'm sure he'd just as soon not be.

That's the reality of the '06 ticket and whoever the Democratic nominee is to challenge Sweeney, has considerable work to do do overcome the Faso factor.

Best,

Morris Guller (D)
Lexington, New York

11:18 AM  
Blogger Morris N. Guller said...

Lisa,

There is one new problem, however.

Since that poll was completed Mr. Weld has departed from the race. That is very bad news for us.

Mr. Faso was our representative in the New York State Assembly for many years and for some reason, and I cannot explain why, he is still extremely popular here. This assembly district covers most of the southern part of the 20th congressional district.

In his statewide race for Comptroller in 2002 his greatest margin of votes % wise came from the 20th CD.

This is disturbing because he will now head the Republican ticket on November 7th and people around here will look for his name first because that is who they will be voting for. There will be no "down ticket" pull for any Democratic candidates here.

Inadvertently, and to his chagrin, Mr. Faso will be helping Mr. Sweeney.

That, I'm afraid, is the reality of the '06 ticket. On the flip side, we have 5 months to work on it. The Democratic nominee for Congress has their work cut out for them.

Best,

Morris Guller (D)
Lexington, New York

11:31 AM  
Blogger Morris N. Guller said...

Lisa,

There is some good news from that poll as well.

Sweeney supporters and contributors will become complaisant with these poll numbers making the rounds. It is a double edged sword.

I'm glad Novak included this race in his article. Money for Sweeney will slow down as long as people believe he is a "slam dunk" as you say.

He is not. We all know that.

Morris Guller (D)
Lexington, New York

7:52 PM  

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