Saturday, June 17, 2006

The Truth About the Pipe Dream Push Poll

Thumbs down to the Post Star for publishing a misleading headline based on a wacky Push Poll bought and paid for by the GOP. Not only did the poll use the wrong name for Challenger, Kirsten Gillibrand, they also polled the district in a way would clearly tip the scale in Republican, John Sweeney's favor. Even a git who never took calculus can see that it isn't an accurate poll.

But Bravo for including a PDF of the poll in the article so that I could read it and tell you how screwed up it is.

The 20th district includes all of Columbia, Warren, Greene and Washington Counties, most of Saratoga, and portions of Delaware, Otsego, Dutchess, Rensselaer and Essex.

In Columbia County, 18 people were polled. Sweeney was rated as doing a Good or Excellent job by half the percentage of people as in Saratoga County, where 128 people were polled. (In Columbia, 22.8% said good, and 7.4% said excellent whereas 42.8% said good and 14.5% said excellent in Saratoga.)

The populations of the counties polled and their percentage polled are all messed up. Just looking at the counties that are entirely in the district:

  • Columbia has 63,000+ population and 18 people polled
  • Greene has 48,000+population and 21 people polled
  • Warren has 63,000+ population and 36 people polled
  • Washington has 61,000+ population and 44 people polled

In Warren county, 51% said he was good. In Washington 53% did. Washington County has 2,000 fewer people and is poorer than Warren County but was granted 8 more poll takers.

If a real poll were done, Sweeney would be below the sacred 50% incumbent approval rating. Even with it being rigged, he just barely makes it over the hurdle with 50.8% thinking he is doing a good to excellent job. And of that only 9.9% are in the excellent section of the scale.

67.8% claimed that the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is early in the race, Gillibrand has raised funds and hasn't spent anything yet.

A lot of votes are in play. Nolan's poll is a pipe dream. Gillibrand can win the 20th district and that's no lie.


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