Saturday, September 16, 2006

Why the National Journal Is Wrong About Sweeney

The National Journal blog cites the poll by Sienna as proof that Sweeney is doing better than thought. Here's why they are wrong.

I heard from someone who got the poll at their house that the poll just queried whoever answered the phone, that means that it may have used a registered voter phone list, but it was not a poll of registered voters.

Additionally, likely voters are the only voters who matter in this election.

Here are at least 3 reasons I know of why registered Republicans in the 20th are planning on staying home Nov. 7th:

  1. They are unhappy with Bush, the direction we are headed and Bush's war in Iraq. They no longer support the president and will not come out to keep his majority in congress. This is why Sweeney and endangered Republicans like him are fighting to convince voters that representing a District to the Federal Government is not a national office but is more like a town council seat.
  2. They are unhappy with Sweeney's ongoing ethical challenges, his pro-pork record and votes that fail to reform earmarks, his legislation supporting lobbyist donors (see this Corruption Chronicles post), and don't get them started on his personal life...
  3. NY's GOP failed to give them anyone to vote for at the state level. Spitzer and Clinton are shoe-ins. The attorney general's race was the only one they could have hoped to win and their candidate against Andrew Cuomo can't win. She spends her time looking for page 10 or saying "I wasn't in the car" or "Am I better than that? Absolutely not!"

The poll by Global Strategy is of likely voters. The questions are fair and straightforward. It shows Gillibrand within 8 points of Sweeney.

People who think that Gillibrand's campaign is not gaining ground on Sweeney are wrong. All polls in this race show that her name recognition and approval are both going up steadily since the first poll released. Gillibrand has the time, know how and resources to keep moving up to where she has to be to win between now and election day.


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