The Math Isn't Difficult (except to an ostrich)
Time will tell why the poll was "skewed" in Dutchess and Columbia counties or if it was just a political accident. I'm sure this analysis is going to leave some red-faced and/or a few others with a lot of explaining to do -- or maybe not.
Call it a fluke.
Just don't ask for my opinion on the undecided vote in this district.
I can tell you right now why the poll was skewed: to make Sweeney look stronger than he is in reality.
We're supposed to assume it was a "fluke" or a "political accident" that the poll - whoopsie - underpolled just the two most Democratic Counties in the district by 10%? A part of the district that comprises 25% of its actual voters?
I don't think so.
The case News Copy make demonstrates how (at every level) Republicans bury their heads in the sand. Maybe they should adopt a new mascot: Ostrich.
The numbers don't lie. There are no "accidents" in commissioned political polls.
Just like it wasn't an accident that Gillibrand's first name was wrong and that the poll included her maiden name which she's not used in the campaign. While it called Sweeney just John Sweeney, not John E. Sweeney.
Surely if Dutchess and Columbia counties had been correctly polled Sweeney would have had below 50% and there is no way to spin that as a good thing for an incumbent.
Instead of standing up for America and moving this nation forward, the GOP has focused on throwing red meat to its narrowing base.
Sweeney and those in power today have failed to deliver what most Americans want: an exit plan, rebuilding New Orleans, strengthening American jobs, education and delivering energy independence. Those are issues that matter a lot more to Americans than Gay Marriage and the Estate Tax.